"Casus belli": blocking of Kaliningrad by Lithuania not to stay unanswered

What happens at the back of the European world? Vilnius decided to blockade Kaliningrad. Yet, the blockade was not unexpected: in the current global confrontation there is nothing random, uncalculated, that is done for no reason at all. Back in March Vilnius was actively discussing the idea of imposing a ban on cargo deliveries to the Russian enclave, but this plan was not implemented - as it turned out, it was postponed for some time. It is naive to believe that Vilnius itself decided to take a step that could be a reason to declare full-fledged war. So why exactly here, exactly now and exactly this "casus belli" was chosen? And, most importantly, by whom?

The blocking of Kaliningrad will not go unanswered - and the frozen will envy the dead.

Vilnius decided to blockade Kaliningrad. Yet, the blockade was not unexpected: in the current global confrontation there is nothing random, uncalculated, that is done for no reason at all.

Only a naïve person would believe that what is happening before our eyes is the result of an arbitrary combination of coincidental circumstances: one thing inadvertently caused another, another caused the third one, and then a pebble started an avalanche. There is no need to be a conspiracy theorist to know that the activity of a single human-atom is really difficult to calculate, but the motion vectors of millions are not only predictable, but even easily programmable. Socio-dynamic design is a common occupation for situation rooms in presidential palaces. What's more, even the popular media amuse themselves with speculative construction of such things: here's a film by the BBC, made six years ago, detailing how the Baltic States could become the fuse that ignited the flames of the World War III. 

The BBC, however, shows it quite different from what really happens in Lithuania now. The British have chosen Latvia as the place, where the spark will break out, from which the world conflagration will be blown - protesting crowds, fights with the police, the proclamation of the republic, the fight between Russia and NATO. The authors of the film brought together former ministers, diplomats, military and invited them to virtually decide the fate of the world, looking at the filmic picture of the Riga revolt: the British authorities, albeit former ones, led humanity straight to a nuclear apocalypse. What's discouraging is that the BBC had got responsible and serious people, never mind they are retirees. And all the current officials either pretend to be clowns or are such in reality, take Boris Johnson for example. Anyway, the BBC film is a mind game, but an eloquent one: the scenarios were drawn up long ago, all that was left to do was choose the right one. Let's return to our Lithuanians: in Lithuania itself they talked about the fact that the decision about the blockade was made not in Vilnius at all, almost with hysterical notes - the authorship is thrown from hand to hand, like a hot potato. Moreover, they are trying to challenge the obvious.

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister of Lithuania:

There is no blockade of Kaliningrad. Just last weekend, sanctions came into force against part of the goods included in the so-called sanctions package, and, accordingly, railway agents were informed about the application of these sanctions.

Maybe the Vilnius authorities do not really understand the meaning of the terminology used: the blockade is precisely the termination of someone's access to anywhere or to something. In the EU, too, they pretend that there is a phenomenon, but there is no such word.

Markus Ederer, EU Ambassador to Russia:

I explained the position of the EU, the essence of which is as follows: there is no ban on transit, there is no blockade either. I appeal to the Russian side to remain cool-headed, not to escalate, neither in words, nor in deeds.

That would be difficult. If a country, in violation of its international obligations, creates obstacles to the circulation of trade flows within another state, this is not just a blockade, it is a de facto declaration of war. And Lithuania understands this perfectly well: the Minister of Defense had a temper tantrum, but local publications are asking the question: "Are we gonna get away with it?" How come? You are definitely not!

Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia:

Russia will certainly respond to such hostile actions. Relevant measures will be adopted in an interdepartmental format. Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania.

So far, it has been decided to disconnect Lithuania from the unified Belarusian-Russian-Baltic energy system BRELL. This will hurt the enemy, but insensitively: Lithuania itself was going to leave the BRELL, and it officially buys only Scandinavian power. Well, maybe at the peak of winter consumption it gets some Belarusian power - but only secretly and through the fourth hand, so that no one guessed. But keep in mind: Vilnius plans to tighten the blockade. After the railway, similar restrictions on transit were introduced for motor vehicles. Well, and then come all the points: On July 10, the list of restrictions will be supplemented with cement, on August 10 with coal, and on December 5 with oil. All this, of course, can be delivered by sea by ferries, but in winter storms will start, ice will get in the way - in general, Kaliningrad is clearly threatened by blackouts and slow freezing. Isn't that a blockade?

Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania:

There is an attempt to dramatize the situation. Goods will be affected by less than half of the volume of transit, even when the sanctions come into force in full. It turns out that there is no blockade.

For some reason, the Croatian newspaper reported that Lithuania is also preparing to interrupt the transit of gas to the Russian region. God knows if this is true, but if it is, then together these measures are a full-fledged attack - and there will be victims in the form of the frozen and the hungry, and destruction due to lack of building materials for repair. Moreover, the scheme is almost as rough as in the good old joke "Buy a brick":

- Hey! Buy a brick!

- A brick? And I don't need a brick!

 - You need it!

The United States, standing behind the brick seller, has already issued a warning - Lithuania is protected by the 5th paragraph of the NATO charter, so there can be no use of force against it. But force, in fact, is not needed. Getting the notorious Suwalki Gap, which makes its way into the region, with a mighty blow, is an empty fantasy, a legacy of another era: it is useless even if one sets out to get it. There is no road from Belarus to Kaliningrad in this corridor - you can only get there by swamps and by tanks, and it is not suitable for delivering coal to the freezing people. Russia has two extreme non-military means – the tools of contactless explanation, so to speak. First, the cessation of gas supplies to Europe - no, not a blockade, as such a language turns to say: no, something just broke in the compressors. Again, not a blockade in any case, but only a restriction by the Russian Baltic Fleet of any commodity access to Lithuanian ports: the same liquefied gas, for example, is delivered to Lithuania through Klaipeda. In general, the third world war is by no means inevitable, no matter who directs Vilnius in this conflict - Great Britain or the United States. The only thing is to make gas an instrument of non-hot war - and then the frozen will envy the dead.