Possible options for international developments and their impact on the life of Belarus in 2023 were discussed by presenters Elena Davidovich and Elena Shvayko with Chairman of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus Andrei Savinykh.
Trends in 2023
Social time is somewhat longer than our physical time perceived by an individual. Therefore, it is difficult to assess the transformation of the world in the interval of one year. In a sense, the past year 2022 was a turning point, because the global processes of destruction of the unipolar world have indeed seriously intensified. In 2023 these trends will continue and even intensify. But before we talk about them, we must formulate what humanity is facing, what has come into the new year.
The continuation of the collapse of the unipolar world is primarily connected with the conflict between the financial and corporate circles (which are supranational, exist everywhere and represent transnational corporations) and the nation-states, the traditional social systems. Plus, it is also a conflict of two ideologies. Today it is important to talk about this.
In the middle of last year, this confrontation was ideologically framed in a concrete way. The renowned political scientist Francis Yoshihiro Fukuyama published a manifesto of liberal nationalism in June 2022.
This is a very interesting phenomenon. Liberalism emerged in the mid-nineteenth century and at the time was quite a progressive movement. It was associated with the struggle for individual rights of people, for the innate rights of man and his freedoms. Nationalism at the beginning of the XIX century was also associated with a certain revolutionary movement. Then the concept of nations began to take shape, replacing the logic of the monarchy. If previously the monarch had been the source of legitimate power, then in the 19th century the concept of a nation emergedBut over time, the two concepts - nationalism and liberalism - were seriously altered. And liberalism turned into neoliberalism, individualism. Nationalism began to degenerate into Nazism in the twentieth century. And the unification of these two philosophical concepts, social concepts, opened a new page. If we talk about liberal nationalism operating within a single country, it tends to create the conditions for sacrificing a part of the population: whether it be Jews, whether it be Russians, whether it be people who do not accept the fight against COVID or the green agenda. But this is inherently fascism, a classic version of fascism. However, if the ideology of liberal nationalism begins to be professed by a group of countries, then they begin to preach, for example, the culture of abolition, which we see in relation to Russian culture. And this is already classic Nazism. It is already an attempt to put some nations above others.
It turns out that liberal nationalism is a philosophical current of the postmodern that abandons rationalism, standards, and some understandable criteria for evaluating the reality surrounding us, humanity, and forms a completely different basis that leads us either to fascism or to Nazism.
Techno-feudalism, scenario in favor of a global oligarchy
The scenario this financial-corporate group is proposing is techno-feudalism. In essence, it is a departure from the free market, from competition, from everything that the classical liberals value (it will not exist in this system). There is a a departure from traditional human civilization, based on Greek philosophy, Roman law and traditional Abrahamic religions.
This movement is fueled, supported and developed by a very, very small group of people, the owners of transnational corporations. For simply, they can be called the global oligarchy. (It is not the "golden billion," it is even much smaller. It could be 15-20 million).
Today they own the strategic initiative, control the vast majority of transnational corporations in the world, especially financial and digital, even though they represent less than one percent of the population, maybe even half a percent. They are opposed by a very large number of nation-states, two-thirds of the world's population. If we talk about large states, we can mention Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Brazil, all of Latin America. In recent years, by the way, a left-wing socialist-type government has come to power in all the countries there.
By and large we are talking about 70-75% of the population. 2/3 of the countries in the world are, without exaggeration, over 70% of the world's GDP. Now we are seeing these countries coming together. They understand that transnational corporations are leading the old economic system to collapse, and they will do so by a pretty hard landing scenario with an attempt to shift the main costs onto developing countries, onto those countries that would like a more equitable world order. That is why these countries are trying to create some kind of associations. Among them are ASEAN, the SCO, the Union State, and the EAEU. That is an attempt to make the transition to the new economy and to the new multipolar world more predictable, more understandable, more fair and less difficult.
What kind of world do we want to build?
We can formulate the main idea of what we don't want, what we don't want to be, but then we will have to answer a very important question: what do we want for ourselves? What kind of world do we want to build for all countries?
If we answer the first question and don't answer the second, we could be in big trouble. We have to formulate for ourselves the future that we want. The parameters and features of this future will emerge gradually throughout 2023 and 2024. I think this period will even be stretched out over several years. The basis will be a certain legal equality of people, that is, we must not allow the division of people into estates. "To each according to his work and according to his abilities" is not a communist slogan, but rather a socialist, communitarian slogan in broad application. It is social justice, it is the preservation of traditional social structures in the form of nation-states, in the form of the traditional family, traditional social relations. It is the preservation of morality, which is embedded in almost all Abrahamic religions, it is the preservation of philosophy and, to some extent, the principles of modernity. Modernity as a philosophical current, which says that man can transform the world on a rational basis, constantly improving the conditions of his life, preserving the environment, developing science, learning new horizons. Therefore, it seems to me, this will be the general line of human development.
If we talk about obvious trends, I would highlight the following: the number of local conflicts will increase.
We are used to talking about Taiwan and the tension that is forming around this particular part of China, but experts also note the increase in tension along the China-India line in the area of Tibet. The likelihood of a conflict between Turkey and Greece over one of the islands, or perhaps many islands in the Aegean Sea, is a very serious concern, and the situation in Central Asia or Central Asia remains difficult. There are growing tensions between North and South Korea and, incidentally, a war in the Persian Gulf, given that Iran is gaining power and that Saudi Arabia is withdrawing from the United States. There is growing instability in the Middle East. The most interesting imbalances exist in Southeast Asia. And if you look very closely, the Chinese population in these countries is somewhere between one and one and a half percent. But they own 50 to 70 percent of the entire economy, the production complexes. So it is quite possible that we can predict an increase in anti-Chinese sentiment in, say, the Philippines and a number of other countries.
In any case, what is bound to happen will be an economic recession. And an economic recession in developed countries. They have already been hit by inflation. They are trying to control inflation by raising bank interest rates, and this inevitably leads to a reduction in production.
The threat of bankruptcy in the West
Most of all, experts fear a crisis of defaults on a larger scale, when it is not just about one bank, but about dozens of companies. If these defaults happen, there will be a very hard landing which will hit the European Union first and foremost. This is a scenario of socio-economic disaster in the EU. Whether it will fall apart or not, it's hard to say. But there is no doubt that the social, political, and economic situation in the EU will be very difficult. It is already being observed, but this is only the beginning. We will see it closer to the end of 2023, maybe even in 2024.
The Inevitable Cannibalism of the U.S.
The U.S. seems to be trying to eliminate a competitor in the face of the EU, but they do not do it consciously. They placed their bets on the collapse of Russia's economy with the subsequent plundering of this country's natural resources. Since it completely failed, they have to buy the crisis phenomena inside themselves on the American continent at the expense of the closest allies taking their resources. And this is primarily the EU, Japan, and maybe some countries in the Middle East. We get the inevitable cannibalism, which is due to the fact that the global financial system is approaching the limits of its development and its growth. Therefore, we will see an increase in economic sanctions. The economic warfare around the world will continue to be very active.
The number of countries that are abandoning the pro-Western path will increase steadily. And they will take an increasingly active stance.
Here we must say directly and clearly: this Western model has reached the limit of its existence, it can no longer ensure the development of humanity.
It cannot even ensure the development of Western countries. It is inevitably collapsing.
Another question is that those countries which have suffered from this system, the developing countries, they do not want to be buried under the rubble of this crumbling world. They are trying to break out of this global financial system, creating their own. Hence the tasks which the SCO, ASEAN and EAEU have set for themselves are first of all to create their own financial system and to use national or regional currencies in international trade. There can be different variants. These are new security principles, such as those discussed within the SCO. And these are new regional international organizations with an exit to the reform of global organizations such as the UN. These issues and trends will be developed in 2023.
- Because of the conflict in Ukraine, is our region the most dangerous?
It is humanly possible to perceive the situation this way. But I cannot agree that our region is the most dangerous. It is not. The conflict in Ukraine is a very close, very painful, very violent conflict that makes a very strong impression on us all. We would like to avoid it. But this conflict is a struggle for the right to form our own region. Today we can talk about this quite provably. Both Merkel and Oland have admitted that the Minsk Agreements were not an attempt to resolve the conflict, but an attempt to buy time in order to arm the Ukrainian army, process part of the Ukrainian population and throw them into the destruction of our macro-region, the union that we are trying to create in order to ensure peace in this territory. But this task is within our grasp. And when it is solved, the chances for our region to develop sustainably and prosperously will be much higher than for most countries in other parts of the world.
Russia cannot and never will lose this conflict. Not only by virtue of greater potential, but also by virtue of the fact that the truth is on their side. And by virtue of the fact that the West has taken this confrontation to the level of an ontological conflict. That is, this means that there can only be one winner, and in these conditions it is possible to solve this problem only through victory, which, in my view, will be achieved in 2023. As soon as that happens, we will enter the phase of reconstruction of not only Ukraine, but of the whole economy, solving our regional problems.
Tasks for our region
If we talk about tasks for the region, it is first of all a new industrialization.
We must recreate on our territory the production of all major industrial and manufacturing components and reach the creation of a self-sufficient technological zone that will produce all kinds of critically important products. But in addition to this, we need to build a new hierarchy of development goals, we need to restore the engineering school, we need to think about the development of internal logistics, banking, and telecommunications infrastructure. We need to work out and create a new model for managing both the economy and people, including new principles of interaction between people.
We need to find a harmonious balance between the interests of society and the individual rights and freedoms of each person individually. The logic and philosophy of the consumer society is dying out.
Society cannot live without some idea, without striving for something perfect and interesting. Such an idea could be, say, going into space, some kind of cosmic expansion of mankind, joint creation. This will in any case be a very important element of the new picture of the world that we have to build and implement in our region.
Given the technology and demands of the economy, this region must include 300-400 million industrialized people. It must have the necessary resources. Proceeding from this understanding, we can further think about who will enter this region. It is clear that the union of Belarus and Russia is not enough, it is only 160 million people, i.e. we must also include the countries of Central Asia, but it is not only the countries of the former Soviet Union. It is quite possible that the macro-region may include Iran. Then the speculation begins. The fact is that this process is quite controversial, there are too many factors that must be taken into account. It is impossible to predict how it will develop. This is a 3-5 year period at least. We can also talk about the Balkans, about parts of Central Europe, about certain countries of South-East Asia. In a word, this is an open process.
In order to attract a sufficient number of countries, we must form our own picture of the world, our own principles on which we will build this macro-region, and make it attractive to other nations. Then we will succeed.
Turkey's interests
Turkey is a country that defends its national interests. Recep Tayyip Erdogan cares more about Turkey's interests than NATO's interests. And so he often comes into conflict with the United States, and consequently with other NATO members. And that's why there are these problems. NATO, as a military bloc, is losing its significance and is in a deep crisis. It is trying to find some ways of resolving these conflicts, but the economic situation is such that it will be very difficult for it to achieve this. So I do not rule out that at some point Turkey will realize that NATO is a burden for it. But no one can say it with one hundred percent certainty right now. These are trends that we must keep in mind and analyze. My advice here would be to use a kind of scenario approach where you analyze all kinds of possibilities, scenarios, different degrees of probability, but which one comes true is impossible to say, because sometimes even a scenario that was given a 2-3% probability and not 30-40% is realized. Nassim Taleb describes in his famous book "The Black Swan" exactly the kind of thing that sometimes happens in history. This is also called "the irony of history": we plan something, assume something, and history can reason any way it wants.
The Return of Former Politicians
The elections in Brazil and Israel have brought back the politicians who once were. Back are those politicians under whom people felt more or less confident. They want that confidence. They're worried about what's happening to the world. They think it's better to have conservative values than a rabid postmodern whirlwind with nothing to fall back on. So they start voting for people they know.
This is a problem right now for virtually the entire population. Coincidentally, the crisis that is unfolding in the world is multi-layered. It is social, and economic, and political, and managerial, and generational. There is now a change of political elites.
Minsk Agreements as an illustration of the myth of western principles and values
International treaties are respected only if there is power to defend the provisions of this treaty. If there is no such power, they are violated. And we must finally understand a simple truth. We have created the myth that the West is based on principles and values. This is not true.
Western politicians and Western civilization are above all about material gain. And as long as rules help gentlemen make money, gentlemen follow those rules. As soon as that is broken, what do gentlemen do? They change the rules. This is the logic, the alpha and omega, of Western civilization, built on racist principles.
Promising international organizations for Belarus.
Of course, this is the EAEU as an economic bloc, the SCO as a defense initiative, the ASEAN as a promising partner for trade and economic cooperation in the medium term. The Union State is an important political union.
The West has opened a Pandora's Box.
There are two points here. I didn't say for nothing that the preservation of Ukrainian statehood is first of all connected with Russia's victory in special operation. Maybe through this victory it will be possible to preserve Ukraine as a state entity. If it fails then the process that began with the destruction of Yugoslavia, which was completed by the destruction of the general consensus on the inviolability of European borders after World War II, will probably take place. And the West destroyed that consensus when it recognized Kosovo and separated Kosovo from Serbia. Then this Pandora's Box was opened. Now that the state is weakening and collapsing, there is no country in Europe that does not have similar problems. Poland, Hungary and Romania all have claims against Ukraine. The same claims can be made by Germany against Poland, and so on down the list. All countries are in a vulnerable position. I sincerely hope that Ukraine will be preserved, at least as close as possible to the borders that existed before last February.
If we talk about the tasks for this year, the idea and logic are in line with the ancient Roman wisdom: Si vis pacem, para bellum - "If you want peace, prepare for war". In order to protect peace as the highest value for Belarusians and our society, we have to think about security at all levels: food security, energy security, industrial security and military security. But this will not be sufficient if we fail to perform two other tasks. The Year of Peace and Creation implies addressing these two issues. The first one is further consolidation of society, and consolidation on a patriotic basis - first think of your country, then think of your personal interests. This is inter-confessional unity. There are three or four leading religions in our society, and we need to feel united in this. It's unity among people in the face of external threats and it's creative work. It is the development of the real sector of the economy, not financial speculation, not some pursuit of profit, but the creation of a sustainable industrial and technological foundation upon which our society and, accordingly, our country's infrastructure will develop.
And, of course, when we talk about the Year of Peace and Creation, we are talking, first of all, about peace between us, between our compatriots, between the citizens of the Republic of Belarus. If we are united, nobody will be able to encroach on our peaceful future.
Non-Aligned Movement
They have the issue that it is very difficult to organize themselves, but I think that life itself will force the Non-Aligned Movement to fully side with the developing countries in their anti-Western rhetoric and in their consolidation, because the future of the developing world is precisely in creating a multipolar world. It will have to be fought for, because nothing is given for free.
I want to stress once again that our initial capabilities are quite acceptable. If we put our efforts into it, we can say with confidence that Belarus has a stable and reliable future.
