Refinancing rate minus 1 point, and as a result it is 22.5 percent per annum. The real sector of economy has persistently demanded lowering rates on loans. Expensiveness of borrowing for the Belarusian enterprises has become in the last year too burdensome. And now for the first time since June 2013 the refinancing rate surrendered.
There are a number of reasons for high refinancing rate. Tight monetary policy pursued by the National Bank is a necessary measure. It is necessary to restrain the growth of domestic demand with account of a sufficiently high inflation. At the same time it is necessary to consider that company's working capital is actually frozen in the finished product in stock.
Experts recognize that activity is hindered for our exporters by the external environment, which is far from ideal. The economic activity of major trade partners of Belarus decreased. It would seem that heavy-handed tactics is an obvious and justified measure. Yet rate reduction in such circumstances is well-reasoned.
Zhishkevich Andrey, Chairman of the board of Commercial Bank: The rate of inflation in March was lower than in February, it is a positive signal to reduce the refinancing rate. Plus, last month there was a quite stable downward trend in rates on the deposit market. Banks began to move rates down in advance; that is why the refinancing rate now follows the movement of market rates.
It is noteworthy that with the gradual reduction of interest rates on ruble time deposits for the population there is the intention to maintain their higher profitability in comparison with foreign currency deposits. Another consequence: loans for people and businesses will become more available.
As agents of the financial market, banks feel more comfortable with low rates. But perhaps the question that worries experts, financial authorities and the population is: How will this affect the growth of the whole economy? A recent IMF forecast predicted Belarusian GDP growth only 1.6%. However, in the current difficult political and economic situation in neighboring markets it is just an excuse to use their benefits more insistently.
Floating rate and mild weakening of the Belarusian ruble in those estimated values ??that were defined by National Bank for this year will reduce the rate of decline in exports and the trade balance will improve. Today, positive expectations strengthened in all sectors of the economy, but most notably in industry and construction. Industrialists say: production and sales, owing to lowering rates, will show growth. One thing is clear, development of the Belarusian economy today depends on the success of the country in foreign markets.
